Getting the market right is not enough.

The costliest strategic failures belong to enterprises that got the market right and the politics wrong.

Firms rarely lose to bad forecasts. They lose to their own response when the forecast comes true: delayed compliance, a public fight with the wrong ministry, or a structure that could not bend when the host rules changed.

Country indices score the country. They say little about one plant, one licence, or one product line. The method for reading that exposure stays in the room.